The significance of asymptomatic and mild forms of the disease in the development of the epidemic process of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19)
Objective. Determination of the epidemiological significance of the proportion of asymptomatic and mild forms in the dynamics of the incidence rate and structure of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) globally and in the Russian Federation (RF) for 2020–2022.Akimkin V.G., Esman A.S., Dubodelov D.V., Gasanov G.A., Makhova T.I., Beregovykh R.M., Monakhova A.A., Sycheva N.V.
Materials and methods. Data from the online resource Our World in Data was used to analyze COVID-19 incidence in populations across different countries. Information on the level and dynamics of incidence in the Russian Federation and the distribution of cases by severity were obtained by analyzing Rospotrebnadzor’s statistical form No. 1035, “Monitoring the number of cases of coronavirus infection, including community-acquired pneumonia, and fatalities,” for 2020–2022.
Results. The overall proportion of asymptomatic and mild forms of the disease in 2020–2022 ranged from 51.5% to 80.6%, averaging 64.2 ± 10.6%.
Conclusion. The high proportion of asymptomatic and mild forms of COVID-19 demonstrates the extreme epidemiological importance of timely diagnosis of such cases to prevent the spread of the pathogen.
Keywords
COVID-19
epidemiological surveillance
genomic epidemiological surveillance
SARS-CoV-2
asymptomatic forms
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About the Authors
Professor Vasily G. Akimkin, Academician of Russian Academy of Sciences, MD, Director, Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Consumer Rights Protection and Human Well-Being, Moscow, Russia, crie@pcr.su; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4228-9044Anna S. Esman, Cand. Med. Sci., Head, Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology and Immunology,Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Consumer Rights Protection and Human Well-Being, Moscow, Russia: esman@cmd.su; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5456-7649
Dmitriy V. Dubodelov, Cand. Med. Sci., Leading Research Scientist, Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology and Immunology, Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Consumer Rights Protection and Human Well-Being, Moscow, Russia: dubodelov@cmd.su; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3093-5731
Gasan A. Gasanov, Cand. Med. Sci.,Research scientist, Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology and Immunology, Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Consumer Rights Protection and Human Well-Being, Moscow, Russia; gasanov@cmd.su; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0121-521X
Tamara I. Makhova, Cand. Med. Sci., Senior Researcher, Laboratory of Molecular Diagnostics and Epidemiology of Reproductive Infections, Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Consumer Rights Protection and Human Well-Being, Moscow, Russia; dolgova@cmd.su; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7502-6473
Roman M. Beregovykh, Head, Product Analytics for Scientific Production, Center for Scientific and Marketing Communications, Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Consumer Rights Protection and Human Well-Being, Moscow, Russia; beregovykh@cmd.su; https://orcid.org/0009-0000-3956-2148
Angelina A. Monakhova, Postgraduate, Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Consumer Rights Protection and Human Well-Being, Moscow, Russia: monaxova.angelina@mail.ru; https://orcid.org/0009-0000-9950-2649
Natalia V. Sycheva, Junior Researcher, Laboratory of Healthcare-associated Infections, Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Consumer Rights Protection and Human Well-Being, Moscow, Russia; sycheva.n@cmd.su; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8557-6540
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